Bank of England is set to hike rates to 4% on Thursday as 2.3m households face pricier mortgages
Inflation running at 3.5% — its highest in 11 months — has left the Bank of England's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee with little choice but to lift the base rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, its first hike since August 2023. Iran war-driven energy costs are the primary culprit, with S&P Global finding UK factory input costs rose for the 34th consecutive month in October.
A further 22% rise in the Ofgem energy price cap is forecast for January, threatening to push inflation as high as 5% by the New Year.
More than 700,000 borrowers are already switching to new fixed-rate deals before year-end, with banks battling on razor-thin margins to win their business.
Lloyds forecasts rates will stay at 4% throughout 2027, while Barclays now pencils in an average of 4.25% for 2028 — dashing hopes of a swift return to cuts.
