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Global diesel shortage will drag into 2027 despite Trump's Russian fuel deal, IEA warns

UK diesel stocks stood at 42 days of imports in July 2026, among the lowest shown, as the IEA warns record prices are already pushing up the cost of goods and stoking inflation worldwide.
UK diesel stocks stood at 42 days of imports in July 2026, among the lowest shown, as the IEA warns record prices are already pushing up the cost of goods and stoking inflation worldwide.

The International Energy Agency has warned that the global diesel shortage will persist well into 2027, dealing a blow to Trump's emergency move to allow Russian fuel imports into the US, which critics called "too little, too late." Record prices are already pushing up the cost of goods, squeezing real incomes and stoking inflation across the world. UK diesel prices are now the highest in Europe, with war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia — once the second-largest diesel exporter globally — still offline. The IEA delivered the warning on Wednesday as western refineries untouched by the conflict prepared to reap record profits from the crisis.

The global shortage stems from the shutdown of war-damaged refineries across the Middle East and Russia after almost eight months of conflict.

Western refineries turning crude into diesel are 'poised to have their day', with analysts describing them as moving 'from liabilities to goldmines'.

TotalEnergies boss Patrick Pouyanné said last week he 'prefers the world of disruption', calling the energy crisis a source of 'plenty of opportunities'.

MoreThe Guardian‘From liabilities to goldmines’: refineries eye record profits from diesel shortageFinancial TimesGlobal diesel prices set to rise again, warns IEANY PostGlobal diesel shortages could drag into 2027, IEA warnsReutersDiesel shortages could persist well into 2027, IEA saysCentral Oregon DailyGlobal diesel shortages could persist well into 2027, IEA says - Central Oregon DailyCoinpaperIEA Warns Global Diesel Shortage Could Last Into 2027 Despite US Decision to Allow Russian Fuel Imports - CoinpaperTürkiye TodayIEA warns diesel shortages could persist into 2027 as Gulf disruptions persist - Türkiye Today
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