Canada's Mark Carney reveals he drew up invasion plans after weighing 'extreme tail risk' of US military action

From the Newshound archive · first published 24 September 2026 · last updated 25 September 2026.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has disclosed that his government prepared contingency plans for a US military invasion, describing it as responsible risk management rather than a realistic expectation. Carney examined the "extreme tail risk" scenario after President Trump repeatedly called Canada the "51st state" and launched a trade war that is still escalating with tit-for-tat tariffs. He declined to detail what preparations were made but insisted it would be "irresponsible not to" plan. Despite the tensions, Carney said he and Trump speak frequently and described their relationship as direct and functional.

The US military dwarfs Canada's — over 2 million troops to Canada's fewer than 200,000, and 65 submarines to Canada's four.

Carney admitted this month Canada had "relied too much" on the US economically, calling the era of deep integration "over."

Despite the war-gaming, Carney said he still believes a path back to trade negotiations with Washington exists.