IFS warns Burnham's triple lock care plan could save absolutely NOTHING as pension reform gamble unravels
From the Newshound archive · first published 29 September 2026 · last updated 1 October 2026.
Andy Burnham posted on X as he pledged to build a National Care Service in memory of his late father, who had voted Labour 'religiously' throughout his life.Andy Burnham, Prime Minister, acknowledged he would 'pay a political price' for scrapping the earnings link from state pension rises to fund a National Care Service costing up to £18 billion a year.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has torn apart Andy Burnham's flagship care funding plan, warning the savings from reforming the triple lock could range from zero to £20 billion — making the Prime Minister's £15 billion annual target little more than a guess. IFS deputy director Jonathan Cribb said the figure "could easily save nothing at all if earnings growth is strong." Burnham ruled out tax rises as an alternative, leaving no backup if the numbers collapse.
The IFS says the reform will deliver only around £4 billion a year by 2034-35, far short of what a free-at-the-point-of-use care service would require.
Badenoch accused Burnham of not understanding his own policy, saying "his sums don't add up" — while the Tories keep the triple lock in their own draft manifesto.
A senior Reform figure privately told a columnist the triple lock move was bold, admitting it was territory Reform "should have grasped the nettle on" first.
