Met Office warns record-breaking El Niño could trigger 'polar vortex' collapse and deep freeze for Britain this winter

From the Newshound archive · first published 23 September 2026 · last updated 24 September 2026.

Britain faces an increased risk of a bitter winter deep freeze after the Met Office confirmed this year's El Niño has already broken all records — with weeks still to go before it peaks. The record El Niño raises the odds of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which can cause the polar vortex to collapse and send Arctic air spilling south into the UK. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, called it an 'unprecedented event' whose full impacts scientists are still scrambling to assess.

The last time a strong El Niño coincided with a polar vortex disruption, Britain suffered the 'Big Freeze of 2010', then the coldest winter in three decades.

Forecasters say the vortex is currently STRENGTHENING — which actually shields the UK — but longer-range models suggest it could weaken dangerously in January or February 2027.

A stronger polar vortex collapse does not guarantee a UK freeze, experts warn, but the combination of record El Niño and vortex risk makes this winter unusually hard to predict.