Middle East oil flows recover to 92% of pre-war levels but experts warn 'terrifying' winter may still hit

From the Newshound archive · first published 2 October 2026.

Oil shipments from the Middle East have almost clawed back to pre-war volumes, with maritime intelligence firm Kpler recording daily flows at 92% of the pre-war baseline in the final week of September — but analysts warn the recovery is fragile. Pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz now carry 40% of regional exports, up from 17% before the US-Israel war with Iran. Iranian attacks on commercial shipping hit their highest level since March, and OPEC+ has delayed its 2027 capacity review after the conflict disrupted expansion plans.

Iran has halted all oil exports after the US reimposed a naval blockade in July, wiping its output from global markets entirely.

The US Navy is escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, with assisted ships up by a third in September, but ships on the southern route continue to be struck.

Kpler analyst Naveen Das warned the market 'doesn't trust that we're going to stay in this status quo', with experts saying surging Gulf flows may be too late to prevent a 'terrifying' winter.