New mega-poll gives Burnham a 56-seat majority and fuels snap election speculation as Reform falls to third

A major MRP poll by Electoral Calculus puts Labour on 353 seats and a 56-seat Commons majority if an election were held now, with Reform UK pushed into third place behind the Tories on just 81 seats. The so-called 'Burnham bounce' has lifted Labour from a projected collapse to 86 seats under Keir Starmer in April to 28 per cent of the vote today. Westminster is now openly speculating that Burnham could call a snap election as early as this December or May next year, even though he has repeatedly said he intends to serve until 2029.

Reform falls to 21 per cent of the vote, behind the Conservatives on 18 per cent, in a sharp reversal from earlier this year.

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak has indicated that Burnham may pull the trigger on a snap election once his 10-year plan is published later this autumn.

The Greens are forecast to take just 4 seats, down from 71 in April, as their civil war over antisemitism and Gaza has handed Burnham a critical political opening.