New mega poll shows hung parliament if 'gambler' Burnham calls December election, with Reform as third-largest party

From the Newshound archive · first published 24 September 2026.

A YouGov MRP poll finds a snap election would leave Labour short of a majority, forcing Burnham into an unlikely rainbow coalition with the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP to govern. Kemi Badenoch, speaking to LBC, predicted Burnham will go to the country as early as December, calling him a 'gambler' who 'fancies his chances'. The poll also delivers a blow to the Greens, who had been tipped to win up to 21 London seats but are now projected to win zero in the capital. Reform would emerge as the third-largest party in Westminster under the MRP projections.

Badenoch ruled out a Tory coalition with either Reform or the Lib Dems, saying she would rather force a second election — pointing to the 1974 precedent.

The Greens' London collapse in the poll is a significant reversal for Zack Polanski's party, which had expected major gains in the capital.

Badenoch linked any early election directly to the defence funding row, saying Burnham should go to the country if he cannot fund the military without cutting welfare.