Nuclear war and malicious AI could wipe out humanity by 2100, Lancet commission warns in major report

From the Newshound archive · first published 11 October 2026 · last updated 12 October 2026.

A major Lancet commission has identified nuclear conflict and the weaponised misuse of AI as the only two threats capable of driving humanity to extinction before 2100, placing them atop a list of 17 catastrophic dangers to global health. The 35-member panel calculated that nuclear war alone could obliterate 9.35 billion disability-adjusted life years, while malicious AI — including AI-engineered bioweapons — could cost 10.4 billion healthy years. Commission co-chair Professor Christopher Murray warned that decisions made by leaders today will directly shape the wellbeing of the next generation.

The Lancet editorial accompanying the report warns that if either extinction scenario were realised, the scale of harm 'would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.'

Beyond extinction risks, income inequality could impose a health burden equivalent to 25 Covid-19 pandemics, while aid cuts by wealthy nations including the US and UK could cost 1.5 billion healthy life years.

The commission stressed a 'realistic route to act' exists for every one of the 17 threats — but warned that delay will only push the burden onto future generations.