China's exports surge at fastest pace since February as $1 trillion annual trade surplus comes into sight

China's September exports surged 36.3% year-on-year — the quickest pace since February — easily clearing economists' forecasts of 25.5% and marking a sharp acceleration from August's 25% gain. Semiconductors, electric vehicles and AI-linked goods powered the advance even as domestic demand remains weak. The monthly trade surplus expanded to $133.5 billion, lifting the nine-month cumulative total to $938 billion and leaving Beijing within reach of topping $1 trillion for a second consecutive year.

Imports also came in stronger than expected, climbing 31% year-on-year in September against a forecast of 24.5% — a result that gives trading partners little grounds to claim China is simply accumulating rather than buying.

The EU is already pushing China to rebalance trade flows, with BNP Paribas strategist Ecaterina Bigos cautioning that Brussels has high-value exports squarely in its sights.

China's trade surplus crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time last November and finished the full year at a record $1.189 trillion — making this year's trajectory a potential challenge to that record.