Pollster Curtice warns Polanski's Green surge is going into reverse ahead of Holborn by-election

From the Newshound archive · first published 4 October 2026.

Sir John Curtice has dealt a blow to Zack Polanski's Holborn and St Pancras hopes, declaring the Green leader's initial bounce since taking the job is now running in reverse. The Burnham effect has pushed Labour's poll numbers up as the Greens slip back, leaving Polanski facing an 11,572-vote majority to overturn on October 8. Green members insist his leadership will survive a defeat, but Curtice warned that victory would require "a very substantial shot at Westminster."

Polanski told the Brighton conference to 'vote Green and watch Labour move', claiming Green pressure delayed new North Sea drilling approvals.

A YouGov survey found the Greens would win zero London MPs if a general election were held now, amid a surge for Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Polanski has admitted he is the underdog but insists he can pull off 'one of the biggest upsets in British political history.'