Prisons are 'one major event from disaster' as freed inmates return at 'revolving door' rate, governors warn

Prison governors are warning that jails in England and Wales have reached a breaking point, with inmates freed under the 2024 early release scheme reoffending and returning behind bars at an alarming rate. PM Andy Burnham acknowledged on Sunday that his U-turn — excluding those convicted of unlawful killing, including PC Andrew Harper's killers, from the next scheme — means "hundreds" more prisoners will remain incarcerated, pushing capacity beyond 97% full. Governors say short-term measures will not generate enough space before the next round of releases begins in October. Staff shortages mean prisoners "are not living in a safe and decent environment," one northern governor warned.

One Midlands governor described the cycle of returning prisoners as a "revolving door" — 'the churn is what stresses me out.'

The government intends to reduce pressure through the deportation of foreign nationals in custody and the release of some serving indefinite sentences, though neither step is expected to create sufficient space by October.

Critics say the Harper U-turn, while welcomed, leaves prison numbers 'too close to the bone' and the system just one major incident from catastrophe.