The Newshound

Reform slumps to third behind the Tories while Burnham's Labour hits its highest poll rating since the general election

Andy Burnham (left), Prime Minister, and Steve Rotheram appear on Gogglebox as Burnham nears 100 days in No 10 with Chancellor John Healey's first Budget due this week.
Andy Burnham (left), Prime Minister, and Steve Rotheram appear on Gogglebox as Burnham nears 100 days in No 10 with Chancellor John Healey's first Budget due this week.
Labour overtook Reform UK — which had led on 27% the week before Sir Keir Starmer quit in June — in the week to 2 August, its first lead over Nigel Farage's party since March 2025.
Labour overtook Reform UK — which had led on 27% the week before Sir Keir Starmer quit in June — in the week to 2 August, its first lead over Nigel Farage's party since March 2025.

Nigel Farage's party has crashed to just 20 points in the latest Ipsos survey, four behind Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives on 24 and twelve adrift of Labour on 32. Electoral Calculus says that would hand Labour a 134-seat majority. Ipsos's Keiran Pedley warned against overreacting to one poll. Andy Burnham marks 100 days in No 10 just before his first Autumn Budget on Wednesday.

Twelve months ago Reform was polling above 30 and the bookmakers had Farage as the frontrunner for prime minister.

Reform has been hit by a donations row, racism claims and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain.

Pedley: 'On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently.'

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