Republicans face a 'red retreat' days before the US midterms, with Democrats poised to take the House and Texas in play

Polls show Democrats leading or tied in virtually every Senate battleground — North Carolina, Michigan, Maine and even Kansas — with analysts putting the odds of Democrats winning outright Senate control at roughly two in three, and regarding a House flip as near-certain. Trump is making his closing argument in Iowa and Kansas, two states that would ordinarily be safe Republican territory, in a sign of how far the party's position has deteriorated. Analysts attribute the collapse less to Democratic enthusiasm than to a "red retreat" driven by tariff-fuelled inflation that has hit working-class voters hardest.

Texas has smashed its midterm early-voting record with 7.4 million ballots cast — up from 5.5 million in 2022 — with California transplants in suburban Dallas potentially tipping both the Senate and governor's races blue.

Alaska's Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola could decide which party controls the chamber, but ranked-choice counting of rural ballots flown in by light aircraft means a result may be weeks away.

Senator Elissa Slotkin's vow to pursue "signature cases" against Trump officials to deter young Americans from joining his administration has been warned by a former federal prosecutor to risk handing those same officials legal grounds to block future Democratic investigations.