Shell expects refining profit to nearly double to $42 a barrel as Iran war squeezes global fuel supplies

From the Newshound archive · first published 8 October 2026.

Shell has told investors its refining margin will reach $42 per barrel in the third quarter — almost twice the $24 recorded in the second quarter — as the Iran war continues to throttle crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The energy giant has also raised its integrated gas production forecast to a range of 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a sharp jump from the previous range of 570,000 to 630,000. Analysts have welcomed the update, with record refining margins attracting particular attention.

Some of the production increase stems from Shell's acquisition of Canadian firm ARC Resources, a deal that closed in early September.