Skilled migrants will contribute £115bn more than they cost, think tank claims, as Mahmood prepares controversial settlement reforms

The IPPR think tank has calculated that skilled migrants and their adult dependants will deliver a £115bn net surplus to UK public finances across their lifetimes — an estimate derived from the same methodology the government used to put a £10bn lifetime cost on care workers. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to announce her final settlement-reform decisions to parliament next week, after a public consultation that attracted more than 200,000 responses.

Under Mahmood's plan, the qualifying period for settlement would rise from five to 10 years for most migrants — and potentially to 15 years for care workers.

The proposals could apply to people already living and working in Britain, triggering a backlash among Labour's own MPs.

IPPR is calling on ministers to respect the terms under which migrants entered the country, or to adopt a middle-ground approach — such as keeping existing residents eligible for the original five-year route.