Tories overtake Reform as main opposition party for first time this Parliament, new Ipsos poll finds

Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives have moved three points clear of Nigel Farage's Reform UK — 35 to 32 per cent — in a new Ipsos poll, the first time the Tories have led Reform since the last general election. The swing reverses what had been a 28-point Reform advantage in May, with Ipsos director of politics Keiran Pedley saying 'tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics'. A separate Electoral Calculus mega-poll conducted at the same time shows Labour would secure a 56-seat majority were an election held today, stoking speculation that Andy Burnham could call a snap vote as early as December.

Among former 2024 Labour voters, the Tories now lead Reform by 13 points as the true opposition, against a 24-point Reform advantage in May.