Trump's hidden voters could derail the Democrats' blue wave, pollsters warn

From the Newshound archive · first published 12 October 2026.

Polling experts are warning that Democratic leads in midterm surveys may be substantially inflated because Trump supporters are notoriously hard for pollsters to reach. In the RealClearPolling generic congressional average, Democrats hold roughly an eight-point edge over Republicans, with Cook Political Report forecasting a Democratic gain of nine to 19 House seats. Yet Trump's support was underestimated in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and even the 2022 midterm polls understated Republican turnout. Trump's approval rating sits at just 37.6 per cent in Cook's tracker, though experts caution that the same sampling distortions may be skewing that figure too.

Republicans are responding to telephone surveys at lower rates than Democrats, meaning that weighting adjustments by pollsters may still fail to capture those who never pick up at all.

Even some Republicans privately anticipate a Democratic House majority; the only open question, they say, is how large it will be.