Trump watches Brazil's knife-edge election as a blueprint for remaking his midterm strategy

From the Newshound archive · first published 3 October 2026.

President Trump is backing Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election this weekend, using the contest as a test run for consolidating right-wing control across South America ahead of the US midterms. Lula, the incumbent left-wing president seeking a fourth term, is Trump's prime target in what analysts describe as a broader effort to surround himself with ideological allies across the hemisphere. Meanwhile, analyst Craig Keshishian — who accurately predicted Trump's 2024 landslide — warns that midterm polls are again missing a hidden voter surge, this time swinging against Republicans.

Lula, 80, has championed Amazon protections, indigenous rights and the world's largest cash welfare programme.

Keshishian's September swing through Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina found heavy 'Vote for Keisha Lance Bottoms' signage, suggesting Georgia's two-decade run of Republican governors may be ending.