Ukraine's frontline units are operating at half strength as desertion and draft-dodging gut its reserves

From the Newshound archive · first published 9 October 2026.

Ukraine's troop shortage has become the defining constraint of the war's fifth year, with commanders warning there are barely enough personnel to hold existing lines, let alone advance. A deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion in the Pokrovsk area, identifying himself only as "Afer", said his unit's area of responsibility has doubled while headcount has not. Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute warned that insufficient rotation is driving exhaustion and worsening casualty rates.

An estimated 2 million Ukrainian men are evading service, with around 200,000 deserters and 950,000 holding business deferments.

Drone innovation has given Ukraine tactical advantages it simply lacks the manpower to exploit, leaving battlefield gains unrealised.

Weaker frontline units suffer heavier losses and need constant replenishment, creating a brutal cycle that drains reserves faster than reforms can rebuild them.