US officials now believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Xi's 2027 readiness order

From the Newshound archive · first published 1 October 2026.

US intelligence officials have concluded that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite President Xi Jinping's standing order for his forces to be ready to strike by 2027. Anti-corruption purges within the People's Liberation Army have slowed military readiness, while Beijing is also watching Taiwan's 2028 election closely, hoping a new government might prove more amenable to unification without force. Two current US officials, one former official and a person familiar with the matter confirmed the assessment. One official warned bluntly that if Taiwan's pro-independence DPP wins a fourth consecutive term, '2028 becomes pretty sporty.'

Xi's 2027 deadline marked the centenary of the PLA's founding and has driven US defence planning for years — this assessment marks a significant shift in thinking.

Beijing is reportedly hoping Taiwan's 2028 election ousts President Lai Ching-te, whose ruling party champions the island's separate identity from China.

If Lai wins re-election, officials warn China's calculus could shift sharply toward military action from 2028 onwards.