YouGov gives Labour first statistically significant poll lead in three months as Reform slumps FIVE points behind

From the Newshound archive · first published 6 October 2026 · last updated 7 October 2026.

Labour's five-point polling lead over Reform follows Nigel Farage's party being dogged by a parliamentary standards probe and a Metropolitan Police criminal investigation into alleged foreign donation soliciting.

Reform has dropped three points to 22 per cent in the latest YouGov poll while Labour climbed to 27 per cent — its highest rating since January 2025 — giving Burnham's party a five-point lead that YouGov says is the first statistically significant advantage for any party in three months. The boost follows Burnham's Labour conference speech in Liverpool, where he pledged a national care service, state pension triple lock protections and closer ties with Europe. The Conservatives edged up one point to 20 per cent, leaving Farage's party just two points clear of third place.

Farage's favourability rating has hit a new low of -36 this month, down from a peak of -27 last summer.

Reform is dogged by a parliamentary standards probe into Farage's undeclared £5m crypto gift and a Metropolitan Police criminal investigation over alleged foreign donation soliciting.

Electoral Calculus modelling suggests the current polling split would hand Labour 342 seats, with Reform on 155 and the Tories collapsing to just 55.

The IndependentHas Labour gained support since Burnham’s emotional speech?Daily Mail NewsMore signs of Burnham conference bounce as poll finds Labour opening five point lead over Reform iNewsLabour polling at 21-month high as Tories gain on Reform The IndependentUK poll tracker: Labour lead over Reform widens as Burnham sees best result in two years The London EconomicLabour hits highest level of support since Jan 2025 – and the Reform collapse continues - The London Economic

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